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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 08/25/2020

Morning update: No overall changes to our trend lines. Deaths did bounce today, which tends to happen on Tuesdays as we play catch up from the weekend. Of note, although the number of deaths today was 183, this was the lowest on any Tuesday for several weeks. This portends continued lower numbers for the rest of the week. What is fascinating is that more deaths were assigned to the last two weeks of July, than the first two weeks of Aug. where one would think the opposite would be true. This continues to support the hypothesis that July was our sentinel month in deaths and that Aug. and beyond, hopefully should be lower. Again, we won't know Aug. final numbers for another month. Hospitalizations resumed the downtrend we have seen for a few weeks. Death rates sl. up- stable, again reflecting the decrease in the denominator (decreased positive tests) more, than the number of deaths (numerator). Positive tests remain in the 2-3k per day range from the weekend and we'll see if this holds this week. % positive test results just north of 5% which is good.

All in all, continued evidence of slowly declining pandemic. A good bed report is on tap for tonight's report. ___


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