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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 08/19/2020

Morning update: (Please ignore the media freakout over breaching the 10k death barrier). Continuation of the downtrend in hospitalizations statewide with significant decreases noted in Dade and PBC. Broward continues to be our outlier at this time with sl. increase in covid hospitalizations. Deaths in the tri-county area were close to half of all state deaths. The death curve still appears to be peaking during the July 16-25 time frame at about 185 deaths per day. And I get a sense of the curve rolling over to the downside at this time but still, all of the deaths for the past month have not been recorded. PBC % covid positive tests is now in the 5% range, which bodes well for school openings. I really think that this number is irrelevant as one student is still bound to test positive at any time after the reopening and the school system will have to deal with these isolated positive tests.

We are almost two weeks since our first drop of positive tests to below 5k with variations around this level since then. Add to this the continued decrease in hospitalizations and I expect the numbers of deaths to begin to drift downward consistently at any time. As continued improvement of the pandemic is noted perhaps our politicians can open up a bit more in PBC, in anticipation of the holidays and school openings, to "test" whether positive tests bump up or not. This may provide useful info as to what to expect during the labor day holiday. ___


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