Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen
Death numbers today could be a game changer....quite a surprise Morning report: A surprise number today, definitely. The total deaths in the state shot up by 120 yesterday representing, by far the highest total since the end of April. The follow up data over the next few days will establish, or not, the upward trend which the MSM has been forcasting. We'll see. Deaths in the tricounty area were up but not outside of bounds established over the past few months. So other counties in the state must be contributing more. Hospitalizations continue an impressive rise in Broward and a slower rise in Dade and PBC but I still see no evidence of a shortage of beds to get excited about! %bed usage and %ICU bed usage. are running 83/90 in Broward, down minimally since yesterday and 74/83 in PBC also down slightly from yesterday so we are holding our own in this area. PBC estimated to be 14.8% infected based on death numbers and getting closer to the low estimate of herd immunity of 20%. To get to that, I estimate about one month more of deaths continuing at this low pace. Time will tell if this number holds but at the minimum I predict we have another month to sweat this out. Hospitals by report are stable but over 3/4 full in PBC and perhaps close to 90% full in Broward when you look at specific bed and ICU numbers with ICU beds more available. Phew...lots of stuff to digest. Will have to see if the projected death numbers of 100 per day in Florida will come to pass. In the meantime I hope we keep facilities and restaurants open as long as we behave ourselves. Honestly, closing up now will have no effect as, as they say: the cat is outta the bag.