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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 7/24/2020

Morning update: Relative stability rules the day. What we are definitely not seeing (and what you won't see in the MSM), is a spike in positive tests nor a deterioration in M&M, and each day we remain as stable as we are, the more likely all of the dopey models will be wrong (again). In sum, for the state, ICU beds sl. better and % covid beds sl. down. The death rate is down to 1.43, but Dade at 1.39 and Broward at 1.17 are better. In the tricounty area, no overall changes, which is good news. ICU beds sl. tighter, but available in Dade, stable but tight in Broward (beds available) and improved in PBC. General beds continue to improve slightly in all three counties (I'm only counting hospitals with more than 200 beds to omit the little pus pockets!!). General beds are plentiful in the tricounty area, better the further north you go! Estimated Dade involvement is 19.3% and in PBC, 19.1%. At the low IFR (since revised upward though) we will hit 20% in those counties next week. Cannot wait to see if M&M data points begin to improve. If not, as I suspect, then we'll re-hypothesize to reaching HI at an IFR of 30%.

One final interesting note. We hit 100 deaths per day on 7/8 and now have 5 of the 7 days of the ensuing week of 100-108 deaths. Thankfully, a small number indeed. We'll see how deaths add up over the subsequent two weeks. Sorry, I just don' t see Armageddon. The data still support the decisions of our governor in the reopening. Don't expect to read/hear this anytime soon in the MSM. ___


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