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Return to Normal

Morning update: Ahh, nice to get back to some semblance of normalcy. Although numbers are still underreported due to long weekend, we are seeing hospitalization rates drop and/or stabilize and deaths low. This reminds me of pre-demonstration period and will be nice to see these lower numbers confirmed over the next few days. The sizable drop in positive tests is hard to interpret and needs confirmation over the next few days. If tests continue on any sustained downward trend, then I think we will have learned a lot based on these data points over the past 3 weeks. The hypothesis of increased positive tests representing infections in young and healthy is supported thus far. With no reporting of any hospital bed shortages in the area by the MSM or otherwise, we can continue to open up a bit more (beaches and continued 50% volume in restaurants and also bars, for that matter). Death rates continue to fall nicely with Broward and the entire state about even in the 1.8 range. Dade around 2.14 and PBC at 3.15 and falling. Hospitalizations are likely lowering in Dade although I suspect the modelling from FIU may not support this (their error imho). Hospitalizations elevated but stabilizing in Broward and PBC and likely facilities are plentiful for any further spike, which thus far has no evidence onset. All in all, some peace outside of the hysterical MSM. Florida continues to perform spectacularly given a population of 20 + mill and NO evidence of any NYC-like spike in M&M as predicted by the Haaavaaad graduates. Nice!!!


Follow up. I did review bed data in Dade as provided by the Miami Herald. The hospitals are required to provide data on general covid bed usage, ICU covid bed usage and ventilator usage, which is extremely useful. They also report on discharges so we get some semblance of a delta. Bed usage is elevated but there is tremendous capacity to add more general beds, ICU beds and ventilators. There was a delta increase in admits in the end of June, but the delta has been close to zero over the 4th weekend (similar to my trends but I have much smaller numbers). Here is one important example: as of July 5th, approx. 164 ventilators were in use for covid patients, out of 809 available, 148 on standby and 467 anesth. resp. machines which can be converted. I just do not see any critical masses here to justify the restaurant closures. ICU bed capacity and general bed capacity can be expanded as well and I estimate only 1/3-1/2 of these beds are in use at this time.

I just don't get it ... one perplexed dave!!! (OPD)

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