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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 11/1/2020

Morning update: Little changes with the usual underreporting of deaths on the weekend. The number of positive tests was 4.6k but the % positivity fell below 5% which is good for the state. This number however is very volatile and should not be used for policy decisions (as the MSM suggests). Hospitalizations up and down by a few in each county over the past few days, generally within a weekly range about 10-15% above the lows from early Oct., which is acceptable. % covid bed usage statewide is up to 5.4% but this is due to a dramatic decrease in non covid beds which we see on the weekends. This should range back down to 5% which is our new norm. Deaths quite low and all recorded for Oct. only, for some reason. Trend lines for ED symptom visits markedly down yesterday, probably due to the weekend but it would be nice to see this trend confirmed as we try to figure out if a new spike is coming. Thus far, the increase in positive tests has NOT resulted in corresponding significant increases in hospitalizations and approx. 28% of general and ICU beds are available statewide and pretty much in the tricounty area as well. Will be fascinating to see if this third national spike is attenuated in Florida due to the warm weather. One might predict a more significant spike in Florida with the first real cold front. We'll see.

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