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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 09/22/2020

Morning update: Continued evidence of winding down of the July spike with Tuesday death count of 99, one of the lowest since early July. Covid hospitalizations stable in tricounty area and sl. increased statewide with %covid beds steady at 5.50%. Scattered deaths still being recorded for July and early Aug. with more in the last two weeks of Aug. now. We now have 9 days between July 19th and Aug. 5 with over 200 deaths and 2 with over 210 deaths per day. After then, as I have said before, there is a trail off of recorded deaths with no dates approaching that level again. ED/FSED symptom visits, while low, have all upticked a little, which will bear watching. We have entered a time of increased risk with stage 2 in PBC and Broward and schools opening. There is no reason to believe that positive tests and ED visits will not rise again. We expect this to happen so hopefully the PH officials will remain calm. Plenty of beds are available, better therapies are available and we as a society are well experienced in the principles of social distancing. With that in mind, I really believe that any inflections upward of M&M will remain slight, perhaps a mini-flat curve, similar in outline to the flat curve which we had in Florida these past few months. ____

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