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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen

Bed situation has improved in all three counties from this weekend with the slightest improvement in Broward. PBC is really looking good with, I would estimate (based on looking at the numbers of the largest hospitals), 30% general and 30% ICU bed availability (some below, as low as 15% and many above, at 40% or so). The ratios of general/ICU bed usage is unknown in Dade, 81/87 in Broward and 70/74 in PBC. Dade bed situation has improved though with more larger hospitals having at most, 49% ICU general beds and 41% ICU beds, but at least one hospital is full for ICU beds. All in all, despite the large increase in positive tests, with the total in PBC for example of 21016 as of yesterday, the real likelihood is that upwards of over 233,000 are infected in the county. So the media remains clueless as to scope and severity (ie. lack of) of this pandemic

Another good report which you won't read about in the MSM. Positive tests still elevated but there almost certainly is 10-15 times that number of positive cases in Florida. Everybody now knows someone (usually a youngster) who has recently tested positive and is asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. I predict that these are the main drivers of positive testing we are seeing these days. This is supported by the continued improvement in hospitalizations in the tri-county area with PBC by far the best. Death rates continue to plummet, now approaching 1.5 in the state and actually lower in Broward. This should be below 1.0 in no time, if the above hypothesis is proven correct. Of note, hospitalizations have also improved nicely in the Orlando area for the disney-coholics. It is now estimated that 15.7% of PBC is/was covid positive and I truly believe this number is higher, certainly over 20% or close to 300,000. The hysterical MSM has to seriously query their liberal public health asst. profs as to why there remains such low morbidity and mortality despite the tremendous increase in positive cases.

Of course, I could still be proven wrong with a large spike this week. But think about it: Let's assume the spike of June 12 was a sentinel event with a massive increase in cases (approx. 10x more, really, which we do not know about as yet). 97.5% of those with covid will develop symptoms within11.5 days of infection and 3-9 days later, these cases will begin to generate hospitalizations. So we're talking at the most, significant spikes in M&M beginning 20 days later than June 12. Nuttin' honey. The recent spike in deaths occurred on July 9 and was miniscule for a state with 21 million people. The number has now normalized and I predict another miniscule increase in deaths next week...all still consistent with a flat curve. Go figure. Oh, PBC can probably open schools fully within 6 weeks, I predict, with little consequence based on all these numbers.



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