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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 08/30/2020

Daily covid report: A very low number of deaths were reported today (14), a number not seen since the middle of June. While a large component of this is reporting deficiencies, this is still an exceedingly low number and does smooth over the seemingly (to me anyway) high number reported yesterday. We are forming a beautiful plateau of daily death tabulations of around 190-5 in the July 16-25 time frame. I think this plateau will hold. This is thankfully a very low number given our population! The next lower plateau is building from July 30-Aug 5 and I think we'll run about 180 deaths per day for that period. After that it should be much lower, so you can appreciate the gradual step down in death numbers we are seeing. Again, we are operating in the time frame of over a month's lag time so we just have to let the data accumulate slowly. Covid hospitalizations continue to decline steadily with PBC having a dramatic fall, which I thought was an error in posting yesterday. The bed count in PBC rose back up yesterday but still remains half of what it was about 2-3 weeks ago, a dramatic drop indeed! ED/FSED covid visits and admits are now much lower than the end of May. I would be thrilled to see this daily death number drop below 100 each day of next week. As for the hospitalizations, the trend downward continues steep.

At this point I'm going to suspend my nightly report and just incorporate the previous night's bed report into the following day update as things are winding down beautifully. I see no indication of any spike until the next holiday weekend so next week should be boring, thankfully. ___


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