Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 08/27/2020
Morning update: Another fascinating day of recorded deaths. The number is a bit lower, which we expect, however the majority of the recorded deaths were in the time frame of July 16-24, almost one month ago (these deaths resulting from disease one month prior to that!!). Most days in that time period are close to 190 deaths per day and at this rate, may exceed 200. A noticeable drop off occurs on July 26 and then a significant drop off occurs on Aug. 7. Why so many deaths occurring in mid July are finally being recorded at this time remains a mystery to me. When we look at positive cases and hospital admissions in mid June, that is the first time that these data points bumped up. A more significant rise occurred after that but we have not seen the corresponding increase in deaths from this higher spike. For that period it is unlikely that 200 deaths a day will be recorded. The reason for such different death numbers in these different periods is subject to speculation. Factors include the infection occurring in a younger population, which has been documented. Also improved ICU care with less reliance on ventilators and the use of Remdesivir, et. al, have also contributed to lower mortality. I cannot believe there are that many more deaths to record from a time period of over one month ago. This should really diminish this week or so.
Hospitalizations continue to decrease statewide and in the tricounty area and this trendline remains strong. All in all continued decline in pandemic M&M. ___ www.frankcastingmediagroup.com www.frankmulhall