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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 08/14/2020

Morning update: Another very encouraging report, deaths notwithstanding. Yes there were 220 deaths reported yesterday but they haven't been assigned to any date yet. But hospitalizations statewide and in all three counties continues in a multi-week downtrend. One observation, that deaths in PBC continue to remain below that in Dade and Broward signficantly, for the past week, suggests this is not a reporting issue but rather a true decline, in the NH/ALF population, which has always been a driver of deaths in PBC, AND perhaps a decline in more susceptible populations out west in the county. Translation, herd immunity !?! If this is so, then deaths should remain below 10 for many more days in PBC as hospitalizations continue to fall as well. %covid beds statewide continue to plummet for the second day in a row. (nice to sound like the MSM once in a while). Will also be interesting to see the % positive covid tests for today, realizing that imho this is an inaccurate number, but one we can use over time to establish a trend.

All of this real time data continues to support a waning pandemic in the state. Tonight I'll comment on the improving bed situation in the tri-county area. ______ Update: The 224 deaths, by my count, have been assigned dates. The period of the 16th to the 25th of July are having less deaths assigned to those dates so we will probably top out between 175-185 per day for those days. July 31-Aug.5th is accumulating deaths rapidly and may top out at close to 200 at the most. The point being that the rate of increase of deaths per day may be decreasing although the absolute numbers still slog upward. Again, do not lose site of the fact that we're talking about a population of 21. million, so these numbers are very small, thankfully. On a good note also, is the positive covid test numbers are 8.1 statewide and down to 6.5% in PBC which should give reassurance to the parents sending kids back to school. ___

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