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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 08/11/2020

Morning report: Watch for major MSM freak out today as Fl. had the highest number of recorded deaths since the beginning (276). This is certainly catch up from the weekend and Mon. but I cannot rule out a resumption of >200 deaths a day again which suggests this lagging indicator is still lagging!!

Covid hospitalized patients continue to decline in the state and in Dade and Broward. PBC has been stable but the daily deaths in PBC have been below 10 since Sat. which is good news. Checking for HI status in the county, for an IFR of .3 we're at 20.9% infected and with an IFR of .5 (the lowest noted by the CDC) we're at 12.5% infected. So either case, we estimate that between 179,600 and 312,800 are infected in the county, which means we have only 1/8-1/5 of the total cases KNOWN to be covid positive at this time.

If deaths remain low and hospitalizations resume its downtrend we might begin to reconsider that elusive HI number for the county. Perhaps we are getting near. All in all, a stable report and I"ll be interested to see whether we resume 200 reported deaths a day, again. ___

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