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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 07/31/2020

Morning report: Amid a stable report, all things considered, there are some interesting stats. The reported deaths for July in the state increased by around 257 today, pretty much unchanged from yesterday. Of note, over 1/2 of these deaths are from Dade and Broward with Dade alone recording 96 deaths. This is consistent with the hospital spike in the county over the past few weeks. Clearly, the rest of the state is still not suffering the high mortality numbers predicted by the profs. PBC continues to fascinate with deaths much less than Broward and Dade and with hospitalizations in a slow but consistent downtrend. The curves of M&M for PBC are likely inflected downward at this time and we'll see if this is sustained. The press continues to be misleading in its reporting of deaths, blaring the 257 number today, suggesting these occurred on the day of the reporting. They were actually spread throughout the month of July. The highest number of deaths occurring on any particular date is 136, on July 17th with the first two weeks of July recording between 69-133 deaths and these numbers are not likely to climb much higher. I predict between 150-160 deaths per day for the third week of July. With covid hospitalizations down in the tricounty area, the death numbers may not be that much higher afterwards. All in all, outside of Dade, stable to sl. improvement statewide. As I say daily, in a state of 21.5 million people, we are in a good place with appropriate CDC distancing measures to continue and maximal efforts to open schools, esp. in PBC for in class teaching at the end of Aug. I wish the teachers would read this!!! ___

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