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Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 7/29/2020

Morning Report: New high death total today for the state is noted, (not for each county in the tri-county area though). The reported number of recorded deaths is 222, but this number has to be analyzed carefully. It represents an extensive catch up of deaths all the way back to July 7th. and, of course, Broward, which reported none yesterday. 57 deaths actually occurred and were recorded over the past two days, which is the average number we see for each two day interval, two days later (if you get my drift). The days with the two highest numbers are July 13 and 16, with 122 and 123 respectively. This is not bad!!! (Repeat after me, MSM, NOT BAD) for a state with 21.5 million people. Hospitalizations, as I will comment more specifically tonight, were down sl. in all three counties over the past 24 hours and the ED/FSED curves continue downward, all good news. One final consideration: with daily positive tests over 10k consistently since July 2 and deaths 2-3 weeks later in the 100-120 per day range we may hypothesize that daily deaths may plateau out at 150 per day before they decline. The forces are in play for a decline with ER visits and testing results beginning to trend down slightly, but consistently. And finally (really), our hypothesis of Dade and PBC reaching the low value of HI is not proven. Will readjust the variables for 900 deaths in PBC (at 795 now) and 1630 in Dade (now 1455) for an IFR of .30 (likely still too low) and HI at 20% and see what happens. ___


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