Data Without Doctoring Dr. David Owen 7/28/2020
Morning Report: On the face of it, not a great report this am. However, one must keep the denominator of 21.5 mill population in mind. The media will, of course, freak over the new "high" in reported deaths set today (185-191). This number may actually be higher as Broward reported NO deaths yesterday. The largest catch up death numbers were assigned to between July14 and today, where there were actually 20 deaths reported to have occurred yesterday. This will, of course increase over the next two weeks. For the catch up week of July13-July17 (10-14 days ago, felt to be the beginning of the lag time for deaths from July 1) we have between 105-115 deaths per day. This will probably not rise much further. What this tells me, is that despite all the dreary MSM-provided news, deaths are really quite low, for such a populous state. Hospitalizations and beds remain tight but stable in Dade and Broward with PBC having no problems. There are anecdotal reports of staff stress in Dade due to high covid volumes, but the numbers still indicate stability with bed capacity available if hospitals will take the time to transfer patients from tight units to more open units. The data remains consistent with a slow slog tighter (if any), certainly no severe spike upward, but no inflection downward outside of ED data, as noted last night.
For anyone in the media who insists on denoting hot spots, I give you Dade and Broward, but not PBC and these "spots" remain stable. ___ www.frankcastingmediagroup.com www.frankmulhall.com