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Data After Dark

Data After Dark Dr. David Owen 08/18/2020

Night report: Continued winding down of the pandemic at a slow but sustained pace with %covid beds statewide improving, as well as ICU and general beds in the tri-county area. PBC has an early streak of few deaths, combined with decreasing hospitalizations, suggesting we are farthest along toward attaining HI. Again, because we are such a diverse population we will have to err on the side of a high IFR estimate to get the best indication of when HI occurs. That doesn't mean that we can't run a calculation from a lower IFR of, say .3%. When we do this we estimate that 22% of the people in the county would be infected now. In Sweden, if memory serves me, HI occurred at 17% involvement, but that population is homogeneous. We only have evidence of 2.6% of the county documented as covid positive at this time. We can estimate that 315.000 people are actually positive in the community at this time and this would come close to the 22% positive we would need to reach to have HI with an IFR at .3%. That assumes we've reached HI at this time. Evidence thus far is to the contrary but we still need to follow the data from here on in to see if HI is confirmed at this low number.

My motive in all of this was to put you to sleep, assuming the dumocrat convention hasn't done it already. zzzzzzzzzzzz ___ www.frankmulhall

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