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Counting on Dr. Owen

Dr. David Owen Data Without Doctoring

Morning update: Confirmed uptrends in most M&M parameters is now noted. However, our Cat-5 hysterical media (and you should read these headlines today-amazing) still fails to realize a few facts. One, our state's population is over 20 million and they are freaking out over 67 deaths, which is still less by far than the equally low numbers of mid-April. This remains consistent with a flat (and I'll add the word “relatively”) flat curve for now. Just compare this curve over the past few weeks to NYC in April. The second thing is that the denominator is still unknown, that is, how many people really have the disease but are untested/asymptomatic. Probably at least 10x the number documented.

As I said, the cat is already out of the bag, we're all gonna be exposed to this in some way if we haven't already (I admit, my humble opinion). Models predicting 100 deaths per day in Florida in June were off by 40-50% so when you see what they predict over the next two weeks, take this with a grain of salt until you verify their data inputs. The Sun-Sentinel suggests the next two (2) weeks are crucial, well duh, the last two months were crucial and for a population of 5 million. The tri-county area has not, or will not see the worst of it. We simply do not know and I assure you the untenured professors interviewed don't know either. The whole key is daily hospital data which the MSM hasn't a clue, nor do I. Why they won't dig this out, while generating hysterical and frankly embarrassing headlines daily I can only guess (“yenom”, money spelled backwards). But we have to note the great increase in hospitalizations now in Broward, with perhaps a doubling over the past 10 days or so (remember data, extremely difficult to verify), the relative stability in PBC but with a high number and slight inflection upward in Dade. Deaths in all three counties match those in April but are not higher (yet?). Finally, as these are weekend numbers where the numbers do tend to get underreported, we await the possible higher catch up numbers on Monday. Should be interesting. ____


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