Data Without Doctoring

Data Without Doctoring
 Dr. David Owen
 08/21/2020

Morning update: Another day of lowered reported deaths as well as continued fall in hospitalizations. PBC hospitalizations have fallen to the lowest number since end of April, early May (difficult to be precise due to nature of reporting at that time). State covid beds are now under 5000 and falling. PBC % covid positive tests is down to 5.18% with 7 day moving average down to 6. These are all good factors supporting the decision to open the schools for in class teaching Aug. 31. The online classes should be jettisoned in favor of a full commitment toward in class teaching at this time.

As I have said before, the extent of the pandemic is decreasing to the point where these numbers will still fall further on their own. Now is the time to take advantage of that with a safe opening now. A few more observations: the period of July 16-25 continues as the apex in deaths with a fascinating severe diminution in deaths reported on Aug. 6, vs Aug. 7th. Why is that?? Well, as always, this could be a reporting glitch. But if we think back one month during which time the positive tests were generated, which then became hospitalizations and then deaths, you are in fact, looking at the July 4th holiday and then a back to work Monday. The consequence of aggregates of people one month earlier over the holiday, becomes quite real. Congregates on Fri-Sat-Sun but not on Monday are reflected in the dramatic drop in deaths one month later on consecutive days
 

The continued improvement in beds will be reported tonight on my facebook page.
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